Mexico's lower house of Congress is expected to vote today to impeach the enormously popular mayor of Mexico City, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, in one of the most divisive moments in the nation's recent history.
The mayor's detractors -- including President Vicente Fox -- say he is guilty of obstructing justice in a dispute involving expropriated land and should face trial. His supporters say he is the victim of a political conspiracy designed to quash his chances of winning the 2006 presidential election, for which he is the clear favorite.
''This is just the beginning," the mayor said after a congressional panel voted 3-1 last Friday in favor of proceeding with the impeachment trial. He has vowed to take his battle to the Supreme Court.
But more is at stake than the political future of one man, analysts say. They say the expected impeachment has major implications for the country's fledgling democracy and the credibility of its institutions.
''If you align to deprive the front-runner in the presidential contest of the chance to seek the highest office in the land, I think you really run a major risk with regard to social unrest," said George Grayson, a historian at the College of William & Mary in Williamsburg, Va., who is writing a book on Lopez Obrador. ''The poor don't get much out of the system and they know it, and Lopez Obrador is really a catalyst for their discontent."
The mayor, a member of the left-leaning Party of the Democratic Revolution, has proved himself capable of rallying huge crowds. Some 2 million people marched against the impeachment process in August, and the city has since been plastered with placards declaring solidarity with Lopez Obrador. Allies have set up support committees throughout Mexico. And the mayor plans to preside over another huge protest in Mexico City's Zocalo Square today, before defending himself before Congress later in the day.
Whether those protests will turn violent or rattle investor confidence, however, remains a matter of heated speculation.
Lopez Obrador says not, telling foreign correspondents recently, ''It's a peaceful movement." But observers warn that the mayor may not have total control over his followers -- who include former members of leftist guerrilla movements -- during the legal battles leading up to the 2006 elections.
''You don't need that many people to provoke instability," said Marcela Bobadillo, an analyst with the Mexican Institute of Political Studies in Mexico City. ''It just takes a few dozen people to shut down the oil refineries, block the highways or seize Congress."
She likened the current polarization in Mexico to the climate in the United States following the recent presidential elections. However, she said, ''in Mexico, we have much less civic culture and respect for the law."
Already, one of the city's main taxi unions has threatened to block roads throughout the capital if the impeachment goes through. And after the panel decision last Friday, angry residents shouted ''death to Fox" at a rally outside the mayor's office.
Lopez Obrador, who in 2000 became only the second popularly elected mayor of the capital, has worked hard to cultivate his image as the defender of the poor. He drives a beat-up Nissan sedan and lives in a modest apartment. He has also invested heavily in social programs, from stipends for the elderly to a new university for poor residents.
But his following reaches beyond the working class to include former leftist activists, intellectuals, and young professionals who admire the mayor's can-do style. In contrast, Fox, whose 2000 election victory ended 71 years of one-party rule in Mexico, is widely seen as having squandered his historic opportunity to strengthen democracy.
Many Mexicans also accuse the president of orchestrating the impeachment case against Lopez Obrador to improve his party's chances in the upcoming presidential race -- allegations Fox denies. Fox and his allies note that it was the courts -- not the president -- who determined that Lopez Obrador had broken the law when he refused to halt construction on disputed land.
The mayor, who denies defying the court order, claims that he is being charged for trying to build an access road to a hospital.
Adding to the tension is widespread legal confusion surrounding the case. Nearly every crucial point -- from whether the charge against Lopez Obrador actually constitutes a crime to whether he could run for president if facing trial -- is under debate.
Each side interprets the law in its favor. The attorney general, Rafael Macedo de la Concha, said Tuesday that Lopez Obrador must resign from office immediately if impeached. Meanwhile, the mayor insists he can retain his post, and has even vowed to run for president from his jail cell.
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