Saturday, March 05, 2005

Syriaously, It's Assad Day

"President" Bashar al-Assad of Syria is in trouble. Two allies - Saudi Arabia, once a financier of Syria, and Russia, their main arms dealer - have told him to withdraw his troops from Lebanon.

Assad flew to Saudi Arabia yesterday in search of a face-saving deal out of Lebanon.

Saudis said he was given the "cold shoulder" by Crown Prince Abdullah, who told him to remove his 14,000 troops "immediately".

The Saudis, who have been distancing themselves from Syria for several months, were outraged by the assassination last month of the former Lebanese prime minister, Rafik al-Hariri, who was close to the Saudi royal family.

Last night, Saudi officials virtually accused Damascus of killing Mr Hariri. Riyadh is now lending its weight to Lebanese mass protests that have forced out the pro-Syrian cabinet, and to calls by America and France to pull all soldiers and intelligence officers out of Lebanon.

Syria has long regarded Lebanon as its own territory, and Assad has so far given only vague promises to withdraw "within months".

Gulf officials say he has been seeking Arab support for a slow withdrawal after elections in Lebanon, and the right to keep remnants of his forces there as well as early warning stations supposedly as a defence against Israel.

But one Saudi official said yesterday: "The Syrians do not need any Arab intervention. The Lebanese government is pro-Syrian and answers to Syria's call. All the Syrians have to do is give the green light for the Lebanese to request them to leave. They are just dragging their feet."

Prince Abdullah also turned down a Syrian proposal for Saudi officials to lead the investigation into Mr Hariri's murder. "We feared it was a trap," said one Saudi source.

President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt is due to visit Damascus in the coming days, and officials in Cairo seem more willing to give the Syrians some political cover. "We want them to respect international law, but we don't want to humiliate them," said an Egyptian source. "They have said they plan to leave. We don't have to spit in their faces."

Not even Russia is standing up for one of its oldest Arab allies. Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, told the BBC: "Syria should withdraw from Lebanon." He added, however: "We all have to make sure this withdrawal does not violate the very fragile balance we still have in Lebanon, which is a very difficult country ethnically."

In Lebanon, the political crisis has intensified. Following the resignation of the prime minister, Omar Karami, the opposition has called for security chiefs to follow suit, and for Mr Assad to order Syrian troops to respect a United Nations resolution last year to leave the country.

The opposition has also tried to sideline the pro-Syrian president, Emile Lahoud, by opening direct negotiations with two key Syrian allies - the Shia groups, Amal and Hizbollah. A joint statement by pro-Syrian parties called for "the formation of a national unity government".

"The Syrians are finding it increasingly difficult to find support from their traditional Arab backers," said one Gulf source, "Not even Libya's Muammar Gaddafi is their friend any more."

If they don't have even Gaddafi to call on, it is indeed a sad day for Bashar al-Assad. It couldn't happen to a nicer guy.
Tip of the stetson to news.telegraph .

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